Peace Theories and the Balkan War

CHAPTER VIII.

WHAT MUST WE _DO_?

We must have the right po­lit­ical faith--Then we must give ef­fect to it--Good in­ten­tion not enough--The or­ga­ni­za­tion of the great forces of mod­ern life--Our in­dif­fer­ence as to the foun­da­tions of the evil--The on­ly hope.

What then must we _do_? Well the first and ob­vi­ous thing is for each to do his civic du­ty, for each to de­ter­mine that he at least shall not re­ject, with that sil­ly tem­per which near­ly al­ways meets most new points of view, prin­ci­ples which do at least seek to ex­plain things, and do point to the pos­si­bil­ity of a bet­ter way.

The first thing is to make our own pol­icy right--and that is the work of each one of us; to cor­rect the tem­per which made us, for in­stance, to our shame, the part­ners of the Turk in his work of op­pres­sion.

And we must re­alise that mere good in­tent does not suf­fice; that un­der­stand­ing, by which alone we can make head­way, is not ar­rived at by a pleas­ant emo­tion like that pro­duced by a Beethoven Sonata; that we pay for our progress in a lit­tle hard­er mon­ey than that, the mon­ey of hard work, in which must be in­clud­ed hard think­ing. And hav­ing got that far, we must re­alise that sound ideas do not spread them­selves. They are spread by men. It is one of the as­ton­ish­ing things in the whole prob­lem of the break­ing of war, that while men re­alise that if wom­en are to have votes, or men to be made tem­per­ate, or the White Slave Traf­fic to be stopped, or for that mat­ter, if bat­tle­ships are to be built, or con­scrip­tion to be in­tro­duced, or soap or pills to be sold, ef­fort, or­gan­isa­tion, time, mon­ey, must be put in­to these things. But the great­est rev­olu­tion that the world has known since mankind ac­quired the right to free­dom of opin­ion, will ap­par­ent­ly get it­self ac­com­plished with­out any of these things; or that at least the Gov­ern­ment can quite eas­ily at­tend to it by ask­ing oth­er Gov­ern­ments to at­tend a Con­fer­ence. We must re­alise that a change of opin­ion, the recog­ni­tion of a new fact, or of facts hereto­fore not re­alised, is a slow and la­bo­ri­ous work, even in the rel­ative­ly sim­ple things which I have men­tioned, and that you can­not make sav­ages in­to civilised men by col­lect­ing them round a ta­ble. For the Pow­ers of Eu­rope, so far as their na­tion­al poli­cies are con­cerned, are still un­civilised in­di­vid­uals. And their Con­fer­ences are bound to fail, when each unit has the falsest con­cep­tion con­cern­ing the mat­ters un­der dis­cus­sion. Gov­ern­ments are the em­bod­ied ex­pres­sion of gen­er­al pub­lic opin­ion--and not the best pub­lic opin­ion at that; and un­til opin­ion is mod­ified, the em­bod­iment of it will no more be ca­pa­ble of the nec­es­sary com­mon ac­tion, than would Red In­di­ans be ca­pa­ble of form­ing an ef­fi­cient Court of Law, while know­ing noth­ing of law or ju­rispru­dence, or worse still, hav­ing ut­ter­ly false no­tions of the prin­ci­ples up­on which hu­man so­ci­ety is based.

And the oc­ca­sion­al con­fer­ences of pri­vate men still hazy as to these prin­ci­ples are bound to be as in­ef­fec­tive. If the mere meet­ing and con­tact of peo­ple cleared up mis­un­der­stand­ings, we should not have Suf­fragettes and An­ti-​Suf­fragettes, or Mr. Lloyd George at grips with the doc­tors.

These oc­ca­sion­al con­fer­ences, whether of­fi­cial, like those of the Hague, or non-​of­fi­cial like those which oc­ca­sion­al­ly meet in Lon­don or in Berlin, will not be of great avail in this mat­ter un­less a bet­ter pub­lic opin­ion ren­ders them ef­fec­tive. They are of some use and no one would de­sire to see them dropped, but they will not of them­selves stem or turn the drift of opin­ion. What is need­ed is a per­ma­nent or­gan­isa­tion of pro­pa­gan­da, framed, not for the pur­pose of putting some cut and dried scheme in­to im­me­di­ate op­er­ation, but with the pur­pose of clar­ify­ing Eu­ro­pean pub­lic opin­ion, mak­ing the great mass see a few sim­ple facts straight, in­stead of crooked, and found­ed in the hope that ten or fif­teen years of hard, steady, per­sis­tent work, will cre­ate in that time (by virtue of the su­pe­ri­or­ity of the in­stru­ments, the Press and the rest of it which we pos­sess) a rev­olu­tion of opin­ion as great as that pro­duced at the time of the Ref­or­ma­tion, in a pe­ri­od which prob­ably was not more than the life­time of an or­di­nary man.

The or­ga­ni­za­tion for such per­ma­nent work has hard­ly be­gun. The Peace So­ci­eties have done, and are do­ing, a re­al ser­vice, but it is ev­ident, for the rea­sons al­ready in­di­cat­ed, that if the great mass are to be af­fect­ed, in­stru­ments of far wider sweep must be used. Our great com­mer­cial and fi­nan­cial in­ter­ests, our ed­uca­tion­al and aca­dem­ic in­sti­tu­tions, our in­dus­tri­al or­ga­ni­za­tions, the po­lit­ical bod­ies, must all be reached. An ef­fort along the right lines has been made thanks to the gen­eros­ity of a more than or­di­nar­ily en­light­ened Con­ser­va­tive cap­ital­ist. But the work should be tak­en up at a hun­dred points. Some able fi­nancier should do for the or­ga­ni­za­tion of Bank­ing--which has re­al­ly be­come the In­dus­try of Fi­nance and Cred­it--the same sort of ser­vice that Sir Charles Macara has done for the cot­ton in­dus­try of the world. The in­ter­na­tion­al ac­tion and co-​or­di­na­tion of Trades Unions the world over should be made prac­ti­cal and not, in this mat­ter, be al­lowed to re­main a mere­ly pla­ton­ic as­pi­ra­tion.

The greater Eu­ro­pean Uni­ver­si­ties should pos­sess en­dowed Chairs of the Sci­ence of In­ter­na­tion­al State­craft. While we have Chairs to in­ves­ti­gate the na­ture of the re­la­tion­ship of in­sects, we have none to in­ves­ti­gate the na­ture of the re­la­tion­ship of man in his po­lit­ical group­ing. And the oc­cu­pants of these Chairs might change places--that of Berlin com­ing to Lon­don or Ox­ford, and that of Ox­ford go­ing to Berlin.

The En­glish Navy League and the Ger­man Navy League alike tell us that the ob­ject of their en­deav­ours is to cre­ate an in­stru­ment of peace. In that case their ef­forts should not be con­fined to in­creas­ing the size of the re­spec­tive arms, but should al­so be di­rect­ed to de­ter­min­ing how and why and when, and un­der what con­di­tions, and for what pur­pose that arm should be used. And that can on­ly be done ef­fec­tu­al­ly if the two bod­ies learn some­thing of the aims and ob­jects of the oth­er. The need for a Navy, and the size of the Navy, de­pends up­on pol­icy, ei­ther our own pol­icy, or the pol­icy of the prospec­tive ag­gres­sor; and to know some­thing of that, and its ad­just­ment, is sure­ly an in­te­gral part of na­tion­al de­fence. If both these Navy Leagues, in the fif­teen or six­teen years dur­ing which they have been in ex­is­tence, had pos­sessed an in­tel­li­gence com­mit­tee, each con­fer­ring with the oth­er, and spend­ing even a frac­tion of the mon­ey and en­er­gy up­on dis­en­tan­gling pol­icy that has been spent up­on the sheer bull-​dog pil­ing up of ar­ma­ments, in all hu­man pos­si­bil­ity, the sit­ua­tion which now con­fronts us would not ex­ist.

Then each po­lit­ical par­ty of the re­spec­tive Par­lia­ments might have its ac­cred­it­ed del­egates in the Lob­bies of the oth­er: the So­cial Democrats might have their per­ma­nent del­egates in Lon­don, in the Lob­bies of the House of Com­mons; the Labour Par­ty might have their Per­ma­nent Del­egates in the Lob­bies of the Re­ich­stag; and when any An­glo-​Ger­man ques­tion arose, those del­egates could speak through the mouth of the Mem­bers of the Par­ty to which they were ac­cred­it­ed, to the Par­lia­ment of the oth­er na­tion. The Cap­ital­is­tic par­ties could have a like bi-​na­tion­al or­gan­isa­tion.

“These are wild and fool­ish sug­ges­tions”--that is pos­si­ble. They have nev­er, how­ev­er, been dis­cussed with a view to the ob­jects in ques­tion. All ef­forts in this di­rec­tion have been con­cen­trat­ed up­on an at­tempt to re­al­ize me­chan­ical­ly, by some short and roy­al road, a re­sult far too great and benef­icent to be achieved so cheap­ly.

Be­fore our Con­fer­ences, of­fi­cial or un­of­fi­cial, can have much suc­cess, the par­ties to them must di­vest their minds of cer­tain il­lu­sions which at present dom­inate them. Un­til that is done, you might as rea­son­ably ex­pect two can­ni­bals to ar­rive at a work­able scheme for con­sum­ing one an­oth­er. The el­emen­tary con­cep­tions, the foun­da­tions of the thing are un­work­able. Our state­craft is still found­ed on a sort of po­lit­ical can­ni­bal­ism, up­on the idea that na­tions progress by con­quer­ing, or dom­inat­ing one an­oth­er. So long as that is our con­cep­tion of the re­la­tion­ship of hu­man groups we shall al­ways stand in dan­ger of col­li­sion, and our schemes of as­so­ci­ation and co-​op­er­ation will al­ways break down.

AP­PENDIX.

Many of the points touched up­on in the last two chap­ters are brought out clear­ly in a re­cent let­ter ad­dressed to the Press by my friend and col­league Mr. A.W. Hay­cock. In this let­ter to the Press he says:--

If you will ex­am­ine sys­tem­at­ical­ly, as I have done, the com­ments which have ap­peared in the Lib­er­al Press, ei­ther in the form of lead­ing ar­ti­cles, or in let­ters from read­ers, con­cern­ing Lord Roberts' speech, you will find that though it is var­ious­ly de­scribed as “di­abol­ical,” “per­ni­cious,” “wicked,” “in­flam­ma­to­ry” and “crim­inal,” the re­al fun­da­men­tal as­sump­tions on which the whole speech is based, and which, if cor­rect, jus­ti­fy it, are by im­pli­ca­tion ad­mit­ted; at any rate, in not one sin­gle case that I can dis­cov­er are they se­ri­ous­ly chal­lenged.

Now, when you con­sid­er this, it is the most se­ri­ous fact of the whole in­ci­dent--far more dis­qui­et­ing in re­al­ity than the fact of the speech it­self, es­pe­cial­ly when we re­mem­ber that Lord Roberts did but adopt and adapt the ar­gu­ments al­ready used with more sen­sa­tion­al­ism and less cour­tesy by Mr. Win­ston Churchill him­self.

The protests against Lord Roberts' speech take the form of deny­ing the in­ten­tion of Ger­many to at­tach this coun­try. But how can his crit­ics be any more aware of the in­ten­tions of Ger­many--65 mil­lions of peo­ple act­ed up­on by all sorts of com­plex po­lit­ical and so­cial forces--than is Lord Roberts? Do we know the in­ten­tion of Eng­land with ref­er­ence to Wom­an's Suf­frage or Home Rule or Tar­iff Re­form? How, there­fore, can we know the in­ten­tions of “Ger­many”?

Lord Roberts, with cour­tesy, in form at least and with the warmest trib­ute to the “no­ble and imag­ina­tive pa­tri­otism” of Ger­man pol­icy, as­sumed that that pol­icy would fol­low the same gen­er­al im­pulse that our own has done in the past, and would nec­es­sar­ily fol­low it since the re­la­tion be­tween mil­itary pow­er and na­tion­al great­ness and pros­per­ity was to-​day what it al­ways has been. In ef­fect, Lord Roberts' case amounts to this:--

“We have built up our Em­pire and our trade by virtue of the mil­itary pow­er of our state; we ex­ist as a na­tion, sail the seas, and car­ry on our trade, by virtue of our pre­dom­inant strength; as that strength fails we shall do all these things mere­ly on the suf­fer­ance of stronger na­tions, who, when pushed by the needs of an ex­pand­ing pop­ula­tion to do so, will de­prive us of the ca­pac­ity for car­ry­ing on those vi­tal func­tions of life, and trans­fer the means of so do­ing to them­selves to their very great ad­van­tage; we have achieved such trans­fer to our­selves in the past by force and must ex­pect oth­er na­tions to try and do the same thing un­less we are able to pre­vent them. It is the in­evitable strug­gles of life to be fought out ei­ther by war or ar­ma­ments.”

These are not Lord Roberts' words, but the propo­si­tion is the clear un­der­ly­ing as­sump­tion of his speech. And his crit­ics do not se­ri­ous­ly chal­lenge it. Mr. Churchill by im­pli­ca­tion warm­ly sup­ports it. At Glas­gow he said: “The whole for­tune of our race and Em­pire, the whole trea­sure ac­cu­mu­lat­ed dur­ing so many cen­turies of sac­ri­fice and achieve­ment would per­ish and be swept ut­ter­ly away, if our naval suprema­cy were to be im­paired.”

Now why should there be any dan­ger of Ger­many bring­ing about this catas­tro­phe un­less she could prof­it enor­mous­ly by so do­ing? But that im­plies that a na­tion does ex­pand by mil­itary force, does achieve the best for its peo­ple by that means; it does mean that if you are not stronger than your ri­val, you car­ry on your trade “on suf­fer­ance” and at the ap­point­ed hour will have it tak­en from you by him. And if that as­sump­tion--plain­ly in­di­cat­ed as it is by a Lib­er­al Min­is­ter--is right, who can say that Lord Roberts' con­clu­sion is not jus­ti­fied?

Now as to the means of pre­vent­ing the war. Lord Roberts' for­mu­la is:--

“Such a bat­tle front by sea and land that no pow­er or prob­able com­bi­na­tion of pow­ers shall dare to at­tack us with­out the cer­tain­ty of dis­as­ter.”

This, of course, is tak­en straight from Mr. Churchill, who, at Dundee, told us that “the way to make war im­pos­si­ble is to be so strong as to make vic­to­ry cer­tain.”

We have all ap­par­ent­ly, Lib­er­als and Con­ser­va­tives alike, ac­cept­ed this “ax­iom” as self-​ev­ident.

Well, since it is so ob­vi­ous as all that we may ex­pect the Ger­mans to adopt it. At present they are guid­ed by a much more mod­est prin­ci­ple (enun­ci­at­ed in the pream­ble of the Ger­man Navy Law); name­ly, to be suf­fi­cient­ly strong to make it _dan­ger­ous_ for your en­emy to at­tack. They must now, ac­cord­ing to our “ax­iom,” be so strong as to make our de­feat cer­tain.

I am quite sure that the big ar­ma­ment peo­ple in Ger­many are very grate­ful for the ad­vice which Mr. Churchill and Lord Roberts thus give to the na­tions of the world, and we may ex­pect to see Ger­man ar­ma­ments so in­creased as to ac­cord with the new prin­ci­ple.

And Lord Roberts is coura­geous enough to abide by the con­clu­sion which flows from the fun­da­men­tal as­sump­tion of Lib­er­als and Con­ser­va­tives alike, _i.e._, that trade and the means of liveli­hood can be trans­ferred by force. We have trans­ferred it in the past. “It is ex­cel­lent pol­icy; it is, or should be, the pol­icy of ev­ery na­tion pre­pared to play a great part in his­to­ry.” Such are Lord Roberts' ac­tu­al words. At least, they don't burke the is­sue.

The Ger­mans will doubt­less note the com­bi­na­tion: be so strong as to make vic­to­ry cer­tain, and strike when you have made it cer­tain, and they will then, in the light of this ad­vice, be able to put the right in­ter­pre­ta­tion up­on our en­deav­ours to cre­ate a great con­script force and our ar­range­ments, which have been go­ing on for some years, to throw an ex­pe­di­tionary force on to the con­ti­nent.

The out­look is not very pleas­ant, is it? And yet if you ac­cept the “ax­iom” that our Em­pire and our trade is de­pen­dent up­on force and can be ad­van­ta­geous­ly at­tacked by a stronger pow­er there is no es­cape from the in­evitable strug­gle--for the oth­er “ax­iom” that safe­ty can be se­cured mere­ly by be­ing enor­mous­ly stronger than your ri­val is, as soon as it is test­ed by ap­ply­ing it to the two par­ties to the con­flict--and, of course, one has as much right to ap­ply it as the oth­er--seen to be sim­ply dan­ger­ous and mud­dle-​head­ed rub­bish. In­clude the two par­ties in your “ax­iom” (as you must) and it be­comes im­pos­si­ble of ap­pli­ca­tion.

Now the whole prob­lem sifts fi­nal­ly down to this one ques­tion: Is the as­sump­tion made by Lord Roberts and im­plied by Mr. Churchill con­cern­ing the re­la­tion of mil­itary force to trade and na­tion­al life well found­ed? If it is, con­flict is in­evitable. It is no good cry­ing “pan­ic.” If there is this enor­mous temp­ta­tion push­ing to our na­tion­al ru­in, we ought to be in a pan­ic. And if it is not true? Even in that case con­flict will equal­ly be in­evitable un­less we re­alise its false­ness, for a uni­ver­sal false opin­ion con­cern­ing a fact will have the same re­sult in con­duct as though the false be­lief were true.

And my point is that those con­cerned to pre­vent this con­flict seem but mild­ly in­ter­est­ed in ex­am­in­ing the foun­da­tions of the false be­liefs that make con­flict in­evitable. Part of the re­luc­tance to study the sub­ject seems to arise from the fear that if we de­ny the non­sen­si­cal idea that the British Em­pire would in­stan­ta­neous­ly fall to pieces were the Ger­mans to dom­inate the North Sea for 24 hours we should weak­en the im­pulse to de­fence. That is prob­ably an ut­ter­ly false idea, but sup­pose it is true, is the risk of less ar­dour in de­fence as great as the risk which comes of hav­ing a na­tion of Roberts and Churchills on both sides of the fron­tier?

If that hap­pens war be­comes not a risk but a cer­tain­ty.

And it is dan­ger of hap­pen­ing. I speak from the stand­point of a some­what spe­cial ex­pe­ri­ence. Dur­ing the last 18 months I have ad­dressed not scores but many hun­dreds of meet­ings on the sub­ject of the very propo­si­tion on which Lord Roberts' speech is based and which I have in­di­cat­ed at the be­gin­ning of this let­ter; I have an­swered not hun­dreds but thou­sands of ques­tions aris­ing out of it. And I think that gives me a some­what spe­cial un­der­stand­ing of the mind of the man in the street. The rea­son he is sub­ject to pan­ic, and “sees red” and will of­ten ac­cept blind­ly coun­sels like those of Lord Roberts, is that he holds as ax­ioms these pri­ma­ry as­sump­tions to which I have re­ferred, name­ly, that he car­ries on his dai­ly life by virtue of mil­itary force, and that the means of car­ry­ing it on will be tak­en from him by the first stronger pow­er that ris­es in the world, and that that pow­er will be pushed to do it by the ad­van­tage of such seizure. And these ax­ioms he nev­er finds chal­lenged even by his Lib­er­al guides.

The is­sue for those who re­al­ly de­sire a bet­ter con­di­tion is clear. So long as by their si­lence, or by their in­dif­fer­ence to the dis­cus­sion of the fun­da­men­tal facts of this prob­lem they cre­ate the im­pres­sion that Mr. Churchill's ax­ioms are un­chal­lenge­able, the pan­ic-​mon­gers will have it all their own way, and our ac­tion will be a stim­ulus to sim­ilar ac­tion in Ger­many, and that ac­tion will again re-​act on ours, and so on _ad in­fini­tum._

Why is not some con­cert­ed ef­fort made to cre­ate in both coun­tries the nec­es­sary pub­lic opin­ion, by en­cour­ag­ing the study and dis­cus­sion of the el­ements of the case, in some such way, for in­stance, as that adopt­ed by Mr. Nor­man An­gell in his book?

One or­ga­ni­za­tion due to pri­vate mu­nif­icence has been formed and is do­ing, with­in lim­its, an ex­traor­di­nar­ily use­ful work, but we can on­ly hope to af­fect pol­icy by a much more gen­er­al in­ter­est--the in­ter­est of those of leisure and in­flu­ence. And that does not seem to be forth­com­ing.

My own work, which has been based quite frankly on Mr. An­gell's book, has con­vinced me that it em­bod­ies just the for­mu­la most read­ily un­der­stand­ed of the peo­ple. It con­sti­tutes a con­struc­tive doc­trine of In­ter­na­tion­al Pol­icy--the on­ly state­ment I know so def­inite­ly ap­pli­ca­ble to mod­ern con­di­tions.

But the old il­lu­sions are so en­trenched that if any im­pres­sion is to be made on pub­lic opin­ion gen­er­al­ly, ef­fort must be per­sis­tent, per­ma­nent, and widespread. Mere iso­lat­ed con­fer­ences, dis­con­nect­ed from work of a per­ma­nent char­ac­ter, are al­to­geth­er in­ad­equate for the forces that have to be met.

What is need­ed is a per­ma­nent and widespread or­ga­ni­za­tion em­brac­ing Trades Unions, Church­es and af­fil­iat­ed bod­ies, Schools and Uni­ver­si­ties, bas­ing its work on some def­inite doc­trine of In­ter­na­tion­al Pol­icy which can sup­plant the present con­cep­tions of strug­gle and chaos.

I speak, at least, from the stand­point of ex­pe­ri­ence; in the last re­sort the hos­til­ity, fear and sus­pi­cion which from time to time gains cur­ren­cy among the great mass of the peo­ple, is due to those el­emen­tary mis­con­cep­tions as to the re­la­tion of pros­per­ity, the op­por­tu­ni­ties of life, to mil­itary pow­er. So long as these mis­con­cep­tions are dom­inant, noth­ing is eas­ier than to pre­cip­itate pan­ic and bad feel­ing, and un­less we can mod­ify them, we shall in all hu­man prob­abil­ity drift in­to con­flict; and this in­ci­dent of Lord Roberts' speech and the com­ment which it has pro­voked, show that for some not very well de­fined rea­son, Lib­er­als, quite as much as Con­ser­va­tives, by im­pli­ca­tion, ac­cept the ax­ioms up­on which it is based, and give but lit­tle ev­idence that they are se­ri­ous­ly be­stir­ring them­selves to im­prove that po­lit­ical ed­uca­tion up­on which ac­cord­ing to their creed, progress can alone be made.

Yours very faith­ful­ly,

A.W. HAY­COCK.

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